Adapting to future risks from coastal storms and compound flood events

There is a strong demand from companies and policy makers for reliable estimations of flood damage to coastal infrastructure, now and in the future. At the same time, however, emerging scientific evidence indicates that current climate change projections underestimate the potential impacts of storms on flooding coastal regions, as they fail to represent observed increases in extreme precipitation, and miss the reinforcing effect of concurrent effects of river flooding and storm surge. The objective of this project is therefore to enhance the adaptive capacity of the 2Seas region against future flood risks by improving information flows to policy makers and the private sectors, in particular (re)insurance companies and coastal protection agencies. To this end, improved climate projections will be used to generate better map flood risks in the whole 2Seas region. These flood maps will then be used to develop new policy strategies for coastal protection and improve infrastructure risk assessments. In response to the limitations of current research and policy action on extreme coastal precipitation and its impact on coastal flooding and population dynamics, we identify three specific goals within this project: - Unravel the influence of onshore and offshore climate extremes on flood hazards in coastal regions - Understand future changes in coastal climate extremes and associated flood hazards - Improve the adaptive capacities of communities living in coastal regions to changing flood risk

- Nature-based coastal protection at a location identified to be at risk for compound flooding. - Maps of critical infrastructure risk under various levels of global warming - Guidelines for spatial planners active in the 2seas region that are consistent with scientific knowledge on the impacts of climate change

In a comprehensive way, this project considers three cross-cutting themes that shape total flood risk: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Climate simulations will produce projections of 21st‐century weather extremes and flood extent in the 2seas region for different emission scenarios, while their application will enhance the ability of to combat projected sea level rise.

Flood hazards, being fluvial or coastal, as well as the increase in these hazards induced by projected sea level rise (Figure 1) are not influenced by country borders. To combat the impacts of climate change on flood hazards, cross-border collaboration is required.